Forex Robin VOL live forward test

Trading style: trades volatility breakouts and their retracements, opening additional trades as long as the entry conditions are met, up to a configurable number of trades (8 by default). Only trades at bar open.
Currency pairs: EURUSD
Timeframe: M15
Price: $395 + $195 yearly subscription (charged after the first year)
License: unlimited
NFA compliance: yes (with FIFO setting enabled)
Refund policy: 60 days
Read more at the Forex Robin VOL website

Buy Forex Robin VOL

Birt’s forward test

Settings: default (riskPercent 1.5)
Started: 06.08.2012
Broker: PrivateFx
Account type: live, micro
Starting balance: $300
Current version: 2.2.0

Official accounts

Settings: default; risk 1.3, avoidTradesOverWeekend enabled, useBracketSLTP enabled
Started: 25.11.2011
Broker: Pepperstone
Account type: live
Deposits: EUR 30693

Forex Robin VOL customer #1 Pepperstone live account

Settings: default; risk 2.2, useBracketSLTP enabled
Started: 10.10.2011
Broker: Pepperstone
Account type: live
Starting balance: EUR 2978

Forex Robin VOL customer #2 Pepperstone live account

Settings: default; risk 1, useBracketSLTP enabled
Started: 03.07.2012
Broker: Pepperstone
Account type: live
Starting balance: EUR 3000

Forex Robin VOL official Pepperstone live account

Settings: default; risk 1, useBracketSLTP enabled
Started: 05.07.2012
Broker: Pepperstone
Account type: live
Deposits: EUR 4955

Forex Robin VOL customer #3 Pepperstone live account

This entry was posted by birt on August 8, 2012 at 8:42 PM, and is filed under Live Forward Tests. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0.You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

Comments (43)
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#1 written by zaff August 9, 2012 (9 months ago)

nice! i think of it as a fgb but with better SL system! would it be possible to make a good review and backtest for this one birt?

thanks!

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- #2 written by birt August 9, 2012 (9 months ago)
  
  Since the EA is only trading at bar open, there’s no point to backtest it with tick data. Plus, all the info you’d want and more is available on the Forex Robin VOL website, in the Statistical Analysis section.
  
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#3 written by Gianluca August 10, 2012 (9 months ago)

Birt do think it’s a winner based on the info on their page?

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- #4 written by birt August 10, 2012 (9 months ago)
  
  I would say so, yes.
  
  Anyway, in general I’m attempting to only post EAs that have good potential when it comes to profitability, but as can be seen from the EA Top, I’m not always right.
  
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#5 written by Andrea Bertini August 23, 2012 (8 months ago)

@birt

your comment about this ea. thx

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#6 written by Edmund August 30, 2012 (8 months ago)

Hi Birt

I am interested in buying this EA as it looks like it may offer good long term returns. I rely heavily on your analises and input – I believe you are probably the best AE analist out there.

Please give us an indication of when you will be doing an in dept test on this EA – with the potential it shows I believe it deserves your valued attention.

I look forward to hearing from you on this one.
Regards
Edmund

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- #7 written by Andrea September 7, 2012 (8 months ago)
  
  I agree this site is a Godsend
  
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#8 written by Edmund August 31, 2012 (8 months ago)

POST no 2 :

Hi Birt

I am interested in buying this EA as it looks like it may offer good long term returns. I rely heavily on your analises and input – I believe you are probably the best AE analist out there.

Please give us an indication of when you will be doing an in dept test on this EA – with the potential it shows I believe it deserves your valued attention.

I look forward to hearing from you on this one.
Regards
Edmund

Reply Quote
- #9 written by birt September 12, 2012 (8 months ago)
  
  Thanks for the appreciative comments.
  
  I was on vacation until the end of the last week and I’m still going through a huge email & comment backlog, so my replies are generally severely delayed.
  
  Forex Robin VOL already has a very detailed analysis on the product webpage in the “Statistical Analysis” section. You can find there even more details than I supply in one of my reviews. Furthermore, I ran a tick data backtest and an open prices backtest to compare the results and I found them to be almost identical so there is no point to running tick data backtests in this particular case. In conclusion, I don’t have any plans to do an analysis of my own of Forex Robin VOL in the foreseeable future.
  
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#10 written by mDE September 7, 2012 (8 months ago)

Hello Birt, interesting EA. How is it in your MYFX do not have that bad as others have? Data broker or a particular set? thanks

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- #11 written by birt September 12, 2012 (8 months ago)
  
  No idea really. Probably just because of the different data feed. I’ve taken a look at the trades on my account versus the trades on one of the official accounts and most of them are very similar, there’s just a few that are not matching. Guess it’s just luck that made it fare a bit better for me.
  
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#12 written by Savio October 9, 2012 (7 months ago)

Hi Birt,

What is main difference between ForexVol v2.0 and the previous version?

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- #13 written by birt October 11, 2012 (7 months ago)
  
  Not sure exactly. The vendor only mentioned that the drawdown potential has been reduced and recommended increasing the risk of my forward test to the default of 1.5.
  
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#14 written by James October 12, 2012 (7 months ago)

So how much have you increased the risk to?

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- #15 written by birt October 12, 2012 (7 months ago)
  
  1.5, as suggested. I also updated the value here.
  
  Reply Quote
#16 written by JJ October 14, 2012 (7 months ago)

Hi Birt, I see different sets of results here, the forward test for v 2.2 has the best results, the rest have so-so results. Anything to do with risk setting?

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- #17 written by birt October 15, 2012 (7 months ago)
  
  For v2.2? I don’t think it’s even released. Anyway, I don’t think the risk setting has any impact on the trades taken.
  
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#18 written by Joao Santos October 28, 2012 (6 months ago)

Good to see that a broker feed is making such positive difference.

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#19 written by JJ October 31, 2012 (6 months ago)

Results here is so diff from here:-

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fmonera/forex-robin-vol/339658

The DD in fmonera fxbook is 6.9% , and aver 0.98% monthly profit. This RR ratio is not very nice actually.

Reply Quote
- #20 written by birt October 31, 2012 (6 months ago)
  
  Actually, that’s not true. That one was started earlier than mine. If you filter it to have the same starting date as mine (use custom analysis), the balance charts look very similar.
  
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#21 written by Nancy October 31, 2012 (6 months ago)

Hi Birt

I visited the http://www.robinvol.com/statistical-analysis/
and saw the EA developer claimed he conducted a Montecarlo Analysis for this EA, do you have any idea of what reliable tools and steps for us to conduct a Montecarlo Analysis for MT4 EA, I would like to do this for other EA but always has no clue of how to do it and apply it to MT4 EA.

Thx

Reply Quote
- #22 written by birt November 1, 2012 (6 months ago)
  
  I’m not sure what the vendor used there. You could email him and ask, be sure to also post here if you find out.
  
  I’ve used the MT4i Desktop thing in the past, but it doesn’t do calculations on multiple simulation iterations.
  
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  - #23 written by Fernando (RobinVOL) November 2, 2012 (6 months ago)
    
    For all the statistical analysis I used Asirikuy tools (from the Asirikuy community).
    
    Reply Quote
#24 written by JJ November 1, 2012 (6 months ago)

Aug and Sep is -ve for Fmonera but you had a very nice positive number in your forward test.

Is this due to settings or broker?

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- #25 written by birt November 1, 2012 (6 months ago)
  
  Most likely due to the price feed but I can’t be sure. It’s quite common to see different trades on different brokers with the same EA.
  
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#26 written by albatore November 2, 2012 (6 months ago)

thanks Birt, I will follow this post as well

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#27 written by RZ November 5, 2012 (6 months ago)

Can anyone tell me what is the recommended minimum balance to be maintained for settings with minimum risk?

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- #28 written by Fernando (RobinVOL) November 6, 2012 (6 months ago)
  
  On brokers that accepts 0.01 lots:
  – With $1000 you can run default settings (risk 1.5%).
  – With $1250 you can run at low risk (risk 1%).
  
  The minimum capital figures represent the capital needed so that the lot size is always equal or above 0.01 even if you start with the worst historical drawdown.
  
  The EA will work with less capital, but you will trade 0.01 lots even if calculated lot size is smaller. That would make you risk more than you have configured.
  
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#29 written by Dom Martin November 19, 2012 (6 months ago)

Hi Birt,
A week ago this one was top of the lists, but it now seems to have dropped below the radar, along with your index. This is a bit disapointing as I was looking to buy it. What is going on please ?

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- #30 written by birt November 19, 2012 (6 months ago)
  
  I moved the website during the weekend. Looks like some parts are still not working properly, thanks for pointing that out.
  
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#31 written by Adam January 20, 2013 (3 months ago)

Hi Birt,

I was looking at the 13 year backtest for this product but couldn’t figure out where they got the $82m absolute profit from… could you enlighten me at all? Reading the profit statements for each individual year it doesn’t seem to add up but I’m sure I’m missing something.

Reply Quote
- #32 written by Fernando (RobinVOL) January 20, 2013 (3 months ago)
  
  Hello Adam,
  
  The reason is that each yearly backtest starts with the same amount, so you are not compounding. You have the full 13 year backtest too here: http://www.robinvol.com/backtest/
  
  Please, read the full statistical analysis of Robin VOL 2.0 here: http://www.robinvol.com/statistical-analysis/
  
  Regards,
  Fernando
  
  Reply Quote
#33 written by Adam January 22, 2013 (3 months ago)

Thanks Fernando – that’s why I shouldn’t read backtest results late at night

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#34 written by Robert January 23, 2013 (3 months ago)

Hi Birt,

RobinVOL looks decent. But maybe I am missing something. Does RobinVOL open all orders with stop losses or does it manage the stops interally within the EA. Reason I ask is concerned that if my VPS went down for some reason and there were open orders with no stop I would be sad. Also if you stop MT4 is RobinVOL able to ‘remember’ the open trades and pick back up where it left off?

Thanks
Robert

Reply Quote
- #35 written by Fernando (RobinVOL) January 23, 2013 (3 months ago)
  
  RobinVOL opens all orders with server side Stop Loss and Take Profit.
  
  This Stop Loss and Take Profit levels are updated constantly to create a “bracket” around the price, so in normal conditions they should never be triggered.
  
  This is a security measure just in case there are network or hardware problems, so if your VPS goes down you have your SL and TP protecting your capital.
  
  During normal operation, the EA manages entries and exits internally.
  
  If you stop MT4 RobinVOL is able to remember the open trades and keep managing them after a restart.
  
  Regards,
  Fernando
  
  Reply Quote
#36 written by Mike February 1, 2013 (3 months ago)

hi birt, i know this request was already shot down…. but here it goes again

can you please run a tick data test of robin vol….. i am getting started next week. fully understand that it works on open bars only. your tick data tests usually help me sit thru the visual backtest i run at my end on the normal data. the results from your tick data are a good subsitute for live trade results and help understand visual test better.

Reply Quote
#37 written by Murray March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)

Mike:

hi birt, i know this request was already shot down…. but here it goes again
can you please run a tick data test of robin vol….. i am getting started next week. fully understand that it works on open bars only. your tick data tests usually help me sit thru the visual backtest i run at my end on the normal data. the results from your tick data are a good subsitute for live trade results and help understand visual test better.

You can already compare your visual tests to the open prices backtests on the vendors page. Tick data tests are pointless for this EA as they will not be any different to an open prices test, they just take longer to do. RobinVOL trades on open prices only in live trading, just like the open prices backtests.

If you are worried about trusting vendor backtests, I have personally verified them myself with my own backtests,and they are accurate.

Reply Quote
#38 written by Kims March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)

Hi Birt,

I have an interesting question for you regardin open prices test and tick data test.

I am wondering whether tick vs open prices test should bring the same backtest results on robin vol? since based on open prices model…

I ran test with tick data(real spread,dst=2,gmt=0) vs. open prices only without applying your patch
- result is that open prices are somewhat better thatn with tick data….

In theory results should be the same if tested under tick setup vs open prices??

what could cause different results?
-real spread is not appliedon .hst files?
-dst not applied on .hst files?

e.g. Tick Data +real spread, dst=2, gmt=0

Total net profit=19190.08
Profit factor = 1.68
Maximal drawdown = 1181.47 (24.60%)
Total trades = 2001

Open Prices only – birts patch not applied but .hst files the same

Total net profit = 21202.43
Profit factor = 1.78
Maximal drawdown = 1056.44 (20.48%)
Total trades= 2006

3 Trades Comparison: Tick Data
2013.03.08 13:45 sell 2004 0.10 1.30238
2013.03.08 14:00 sell 2005 0.10 1.29979
2013.03.08 14:30 sell 2006 0.10 1.29815
2013.03.11 07:15 close 2006 0.10 1.30179 -36.36
2013.03.11 07:15 close 2005 0.10 1.30179 -19.96
2013.03.11 17:30 close 2004 0.10 1.30334 -9.56

open prices only
2013.03.08 13:45 sell 1999 0.10 1.30238
2013.03.08 14:00 sell 2000 0.10 1.29979
2013.03.08 14:30 sell 2001 0.10 1.29815
2013.03.11 07:15 close 2001 0.10 1.30186 -37.05
2013.03.11 07:15 close 2000 0.10 1.30186 -20.65
2013.03.11 17:30 close 1999 0.10 1.30339 -10.05

Reply Quote
- #39 written by birt March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)
  
  The spread is the issue. Real spread only gets saved in the FXT file and it is only used when you use the TDS.
  
  Reply Quote
  - #40 written by Kims March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)
    
    Ok thought so, is there a way to activate patch for open price testing? So that just spread is included ?
    
    Reply Quote
    - #41 written by birt March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)
      
      The spread cannot be included in the HST files since they only contain bar data. As such, it can’t be used in open prices backtesting.
      
      Reply Quote
#42 written by Kims March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)

What abou dst? Is it applied in hst bars?

Reply Quote
- #43 written by birt March 16, 2013 (2 months ago)
  
  If you enabled it when creating the associated FXT, then yes, it is. Otherwise it’s not. By default it isn’t.
  
  Reply Quote
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